Mainland departure
MDMR’s summarized GPS chronology records MI4088BU leaving the mainland.
Short answer
The public record establishes the trip, several vessel movements, the search, and the recovery. It does not establish what happened to Nolan during the final unresolved period on Horn Island.
The narrowest defensible reconstruction places the critical gap between approximately 3:45 PM and 4:31 PM on July 4, 2026. The precise order of the altercation, circulated video, witness departures, alleged boarding exchange, and Nolan’s last known movements has not been independently authenticated minute by minute. A reproduced phone record places the Sea Tow call later, at 4:48 PM.
Verified vessel anchors
What official GPS records support
Horn Island arrival
The same tracked vessel arrives at Horn Island’s west end.
Sustained movement from the island
MDMR’s published sustained northbound segment begins. GPS alone does not identify the occupants or the exact assistance configuration.
Displayed Sea Tow call
A reproduced phone-log exhibit places the distress call 17 minutes after the movement begins. Original Sea Tow metadata remains needed.
Normal-speed movement
The MDMR chronology records the vessel traveling at normal speed.
Mainland return
The official chronology records the tracked vessel back at the mainland.
Fort Bayou excursion
The official chronology records a dock departure east into Fort Bayou and a return to the dock.
Primary basis: MDMR RMS Report MP2607-0016. The obtained packet summarizes GPS milestones but is not the native Garmin export.
Witness and media sequence
What is reported, but not independently timed to the minute
- Before 11:14 AM: Tracestin Shepherd says Nolan called for help locating where to anchor. The approximate time is based on his public recollection.
- Early afternoon: Nolan reportedly swims and socializes among the boats. A circulated photograph supports his presence but does not supply an authenticated capture time.
- Around 3:00 PM: Warren says this was about the last time he personally saw Nolan. This is a witness estimate, not an official timestamp.
- Around 3:30 PM: Tracestin says he was involved in an altercation and was forced back aboard his family’s separate boat.
- Around 4:01 PM, reported: The circulated Horn Island video records Tracestin yelling. The original device file and native metadata are not public.
- Around 4:01 PM, witness interpretation: Ivy Elizabeth says the clip followed the fight and that someone in the background only resembled Nolan; she expressly says the identification was not certain.
- Before 4:31 PM: Public witness accounts say Nolan remained on or near the island and did not leave with one group. The exact words, time, and complete listener set remain unresolved.
- 4:31–4:48 PM: Official movement is underway, but the exact tow-line attachment, emergency-discovery sequence, and vessel configuration are not public.
- 4:48 PM, displayed record: A released distress call reports bilge-pump failure, water ingress, approximately seven people aboard, and 30°14.684′ N, 88°46.790′ W as the vessel’s current coordinate. The caller says the vessel is not aground and that private help has been arranged.
- 4:31–5:24 PM: Official GPS verifies 2.75 miles of slow movement. The distress-call sequence makes private assistance or towing the strongest explanation, but GPS alone does not prove the tow mechanics.
Central evidence gap
What remains unknown between approximately 3:45 PM and 4:31 PM
- Nolan’s precise location and movements throughout the interval.
- The authenticated minute-by-minute order of the altercation, video, alleged boarding exchange, and departures.
- The complete passenger manifest for each relevant vessel at each stage.
- The exact relationship between the nearshore photographic context and the later offshore coordinate records.
- The exact tow-attachment point and identity or track of the assisting vessel.
- Who personally heard Nolan’s reported decision to remain and the exact words used.
- Whether additional original video, phone, dispatch, GPS, or witness records resolve the gap.
Examine the timeline gaps → Open the missing-evidence tracker →
Search and recovery
July 4–6, 2026
Displayed records show a five-minute call to Nolan’s mother at 11:07 PM, a 21-minute outgoing Coast Guard call at 11:13 PM, messages beginning at 11:15 PM, and another family call at 11:35 PM. MDMR opened a missing-person CAD call at 11:45:14 PM. At 1:38 AM on July 5, MDMR recorded an early working explanation that Nolan had returned on another vessel; that entry establishes the assessment, not that the reported ride occurred. Private searchers reached Horn Island before or alongside MDMR’s approximately 8:00 AM launch, followed by drone, Coast Guard, sonar, and modeling work through the night. Authorities reportedly received notice around 8:45 AM on July 6 that an NPS ranger had found Nolan near the northwest tip. That is a notification time and may not be the exact discovery minute.
How to verify this summary
Core records and source trail
- Official MDMR RMS report MP2607-0016 — officer narratives, CAD information, search notes, vessel records, and summarized GPS chronology.
- Master Investigation Notes — the controlling editorial record for classifications, confidence, and unresolved claims.
- Full evidence event log — each event’s claims, sources, known facts, unknowns, and needed evidence.
- Witness Claim Ledger — each recorded proposition organized by person, source-of-knowledge, support, subject, and assessment.
- Sea Tow / dispatch audio and transcript — released publication, channel-separated excerpts, and limitations.
- Tracestin interview transcript and Warren interview transcripts — named public witness accounts.
- Methodology and corrections — independence, sourcing, labeling, revisions, and correction process.
- Facebook research audit — which July–August research findings were incorporated, qualified, superseded, or excluded.
- Video archive — family press conferences, parent and witness interviews, preserved evidence reels, and complete original-program links.