Canonical working evidence file

Nolan Wells Investigation Master Notes

Version 1.2 · Working evidence file · July 28, 2026

Guiding questionWhat do we actually know?

What the evidence most reasonably supports

A defensible reconstruction

July 3, 2026Nolan leaves home and stays with friends before the Horn Island trip.
9:56 AM · July 4, 2026The GPS-tracked boat carrying Nolan leaves the mainland.
Around 11:00 AMTracestin Shepherd is already at Horn Island. Nolan calls him for help finding where to anchor.
11:14 AMNolan’s boat arrives. Tracestin says he then spends much of the day with Nolan and the broader friend group.
Early afternoonNolan swims, socializes, and is photographed or possibly recorded among the boats.
Around 3:00 PMWarren later says this is about the last time he personally saw Nolan. Nolan is reportedly interacting with Katie.
Around 3:30 PMTracestin gets into an altercation with another man. He says his uncle then forces him back onto the family boat.
Same general periodTracestin says Nolan was in the water nearby but was not visible in the circulated video.
Around 4:00 PMA Sea Tow distress call reports bilge-pump failure, a boat taking on water, and approximately seven people aboard. The exact call-start time remains unresolved.
Reported 4:01 PMThe viral video is recorded from a nearby boat. Tracestin later confirms he is the person yelling. Original file metadata has not been obtained.
Shortly afterwardTracestin says he leaves with his family. Accounts during this period say friends urged Nolan to leave but that he chose to remain.
Before 4:31 PMThe distressed-boat caller says private assistance has been arranged, and Sea Tow is canceled.
4:31 PMMI4088BU begins moving from Horn Island. Public accounts say Nolan is not aboard and that his phone is.
4:31–5:24 PMThe official GPS summary records approximately 2.75 miles of slow movement.
5:25 PMThe tracked vessel resumes normal operation at approximately 30–35 knots.
5:44 PMMI4088BU reaches El Camino Real Road.
Around 11:00 PMNolan’s family is contacted after friends realize he has not returned.
July 5, 2026The official and private search expands.
Morning · July 6, 2026Nolan’s body is found in the water near Horn Island’s northwestern end.

Analytical focus · not a theory

The critical overlap

The most important public-evidence window is approximately 3:45–4:31 PM.

Nolan is reportedly still on the island.
Tracestin is confirmed to be present; the viral video and Sea Tow call occur in this general period.
The distressed boat remains at or near Horn Island until its GPS begins moving at 4:31 PM.
Tracestin says he leaves shortly after the altercation and video.

The exact minute-by-minute ordering of the fight, video, and Sea Tow call has not been independently established.

Project philosophy

No mixing of evidence types

The site is not intended to prove any theory. Each factual claim receives one evidence classification and a confidence level.

VerifiedGPS, official documents, official audio, original authenticated media, or court records.

Firsthand witnessA named person’s public account of what they personally saw or heard.

SecondhandSomeone relaying another person’s account.

Media recordA public image or recording whose contents are available but whose original metadata may remain incomplete.

UnresolvedA documented gap or window the available record does not resolve.

HypothesisAn interpretation or reconstruction that is not itself a verified event.

Source hierarchy

Current best sources

Official MDMR RMS report — highest-confidence obtained source; contains GPS chronology, officer narratives, boat registrations, CAD logs, and search coordinates. Open report.
MDMR records not yet obtained — GPS extraction summary, vessel tracks, USCG particle drift, drone grid, MDMR-to-USCG email, permission to search, Strickland supplement, and original Sea Tow audio.
Named public interviews — useful for firsthand accounts, but recollection and timestamp precision must remain separate from objective records.
News and media archives — ABC, People, Rolling Stone, WLOX, CBS, and TMZ, evaluated claim by claim.
Subtxt — useful as an interview and media index, but not authoritative and known to contain vessel and reconstructed-time errors.

Verified

Official GPS timeline · MI4088BU

9:56 AMDeparts El Camino Real Road.
11:14 AMArrives at Horn Island.
11:15 AM–4:30 PMStationary while GPS continues logging.
4:31 PMBegins northbound movement at approximately 0.06–4.2 knots.
4:31–5:24 PMApproximately 2.75 miles of slow movement.
5:25 PMResumes normal operation at approximately 30–35 knots.
5:44 PMReaches El Camino Real Road.

Critical limitation

What the GPS does not tell us

Who was aboard.
Where Nolan was.
Who entered or exited the water.
Whether passengers transferred between boats.

Vessel distinction

Boats

Triton · MI4088BU

Contains waypoints, routes, and tracks. It is the vessel tied to the official GPS timeline above.

Bart’s boat · MI1295CB

The obtained material contains waypoints but no tracks. A waypoint must not be rendered as a continuous route.

Released audio

Sea Tow

Established by the public call

Boat taking on water.
Bilge-pump failure.
Approximately seven aboard.
Caller says everyone is okay.
Private assistance obtained; Sea Tow canceled.

Still unknown

Exact call-start time.
Original machine metadata.
Full participant list for the later tow.

Read the bundled call transcript.

Circulated media

Viral video

Tracestin confirms that the yelling voice is his and says Nolan is not visible. A reposted label places the clip around 4:01 PM, but the original file and metadata have not been obtained. The clip does not establish Nolan’s location.

Public provenance

The public X post dated July 6, 2026 asks whether Nolan was arguing. It establishes the uploader’s question, not that Nolan appears in the clip.
TMZ reports that the anonymous original owner was on Horn Island, recorded the video to send to a spouse, and posted it after learning Nolan was missing so someone might identify him.
TMZ also reports the owner’s position that the recording does not show the verbal altercation.

Identity confirmed from supplied profile

The videographer is identified as Anna C. Moore through the supplied Facebook profile. TMZ does not name her in its article, but its account of the anonymous original owner supplies the independent details about her presence, purpose for recording, and later publication.

The available source chain supports Moore’s presence on Horn Island and her belief that Nolan might be identifiable in the recording. It does not establish that Nolan appears or authenticate the reported 4:01 PM recording time.

Public accounts

Witness notes

Tracestin

Already at Horn Island; says Nolan called around 11:00 AM; describes spending much of the day with the group, the altercation, being forced aboard, and leaving. Missing: authenticated timing, Nolan’s exact last words, and who personally heard any decision to remain.

Warren

Publicly says friends tried to convince Nolan to leave and that Nolan declined. Missing: an authenticated exact quote, time, complete list of people who heard it, and a specific return boat.

Katie

Public reporting says she believed Nolan was returning on his original boat and did not think he was remaining for her. Missing: the exact conversation, time, and final words.

Wyatt

Major public gap: last interaction, boat assignment details, and whether Nolan approached MI4088BU before departure.

Bart

Major public gap: last interaction, exact timeline, and occupants.

Anna C. Moore · original uploader

The supplied Facebook profile confirms Moore’s identity. TMZ’s anonymous-owner account supports her presence on Horn Island, recording the clip for a spouse, and later posting it in hopes Nolan could be identified. Missing: the original file and metadata, additional footage, exact vessel position, and boat occupants.

Unresolved

Major timeline gaps

When did Nolan decide to stay?
Who personally heard him say it?
What is the exact Sea Tow call start?
What is the viral video’s original metadata?
What is Katie’s complete timeline?
What are Wyatt’s and Bart’s complete timelines?
What were the passenger assignments?

Records priority

Documents to obtain

★★★★★ GPS Extraction Summary
★★★★★ Vessel Tracks
★★★★★ USCG Particle Drift
★★★★★ MDMR → USCG Email
★★★★☆ Sea Tow original file
★★★★☆ Drone Grid
★★★★☆ Permission to Search
★★★☆☆ Strickland supplement

Rule for the entire website

Never make a visitor wonder where a claim came from

Every statement must identify its source, evidence type, and confidence. Objective records, recollections, secondhand summaries, and analytical placements must remain visibly distinct.